Premier League Home‑Win Predictions

Last updated: 2026-09-13 19:15 BST

Predictions are refreshed approximately one hour before kick‑off.

← Back to Portfolio

Legend

Home – confident home win (≥55%)
Not Home – confident against home win (≤45%)
Avoid – too close to call (45–55%)
EDGE – positive value vs odds
FADE – home team overpriced by market
N/A – no odds available

Performance Tracker

Overall Accuracy: 70.4% (19/27)
Avoid: 3 matches
Edge Bets: 4 picks
Edge Accuracy: 75.0% (3/4)
Edge Profit: +0.82 units
Fade Picks: 21 picks
Fade Accuracy: 66.7% (14/21)
Model training accuracy: 64.7% · F1: 0.591

Recent Results

Date Home Away Score Predicted Actual Correct? Edge/Fade
2026-09-06 Arsenal Chelsea 2-1 Home H Yes EDGE
2026-09-06 Everton Man United 2-2 Not Home D Yes FADE
2026-09-05 Hull City Aston Villa 0-0 Not Home D Yes FADE
2026-09-05 Fulham Crystal Palace 2-3 Avoid A
2026-09-05 Nott'm Forest Tottenham 0-0 Not Home D Yes FADE
2026-09-05 Man City Coventry City 1-0 Home H Yes EDGE
2026-09-05 Brighton Leeds 1-1 Not Home D Yes FADE
2026-09-05 Brentford Sunderland 1-1 Home D No EDGE
2026-09-05 Newcastle Bournemouth 2-2 Avoid D
2026-09-04 Ipswich Town Liverpool 0-2 Not Home A Yes FADE

Model Predictions

Kickoff (UK) Home Away P(Home Win) Best Home Odds Model
Mon 14 Sep 20:00 TODAY Leeds Newcastle 31.41% 2.33 Not Home
Fri 18 Sep 20:00 Brentford Chelsea 16.86% 2.87 Not Home
Sat 19 Sep 12:30 Tottenham Aston Villa 33.19% 1.97 Not Home
Sat 19 Sep 15:00 Brighton Arsenal 9.30% 4.53 Not Home
Sat 19 Sep 15:00 Everton Ipswich Town 47.17% 1.79 Avoid
Sat 19 Sep 15:00 Newcastle Hull City 62.68% 1.51 Home
Sat 19 Sep 17:30 Nott'm Forest Coventry City 82.15% 1.70 Home
Sun 20 Sep 14:00 Bournemouth Liverpool 12.74% 3.02 Not Home
Sun 20 Sep 14:00 Leeds Crystal Palace 25.92% 1.97 Not Home
Sun 20 Sep 14:00 Man City Sunderland 81.99% 1.28 Home
Sun 20 Sep 16:30 Fulham Man United 8.57% 3.44 Not Home

AI Pundit Analysis Powered by GPT-4o-mini | Not financial advice

In the upcoming clash between Leeds and Newcastle, backing the away side is the standout value bet as Leeds are struggling with form and have a low home win probability. With Jaouen out for Newcastle, it may be tighter than expected, but the odds still favor an away win.

Double Chance

Leeds vs Newcastle
Not HomeMedium confidence
Prob: 31% · Odds: 2.33 · Value: -11.5%

Leeds are facing a tough match against Newcastle, who have shown decent away form. With Leeds struggling to find their footing and the possibility of a draw, backing Newcastle or the draw makes sense here.

Back Double Chance (X2)
Back Away Win or Draw (X2) · Stake: Small
Model is HOT — 70.4% accuracy over last 27 confident predictions. EDGE profit: +0.82 units.